1. The party decides who the nominee for president will be. Specifically, party insiders have a say in who the nominee will be.
2. During the first debate, FoxNews wanted to discredit Donald Trump by using the debate as a trap for Trump.
3. In the election polls, Republican voters are motivated by a desire to go against the elites of the party. The party insiders usually decide the nomination, but voters want to decide for themselves.
4. Romney was the one most likely to win the nomination, so he won. He had political endorsements and had run in the 2008 election as well.
5. Endorsements showed that party insiders clearly backed one candidate before Iowa, and that candidate always won the nomination. Endorsements were the best predictors of presidential nominees.
6. In this nomination season, the Republican elites are backing Jeb Bush. However, the number of people backing him is relatively low.
7. The major determinant in who becomes the nominee is the status of the candidate. The candidate is typically holding an office in the party or is a national figure.
8. To influence primaries, parties can influence the primary calendar, change ballot qualification requirements, and limit the number of debates. Parties can also back candidates with financial resources.
9. Republican voters do not think that their party is doing a good job of representing their views on major issues.
10. Early polls aren't always predictive, and voters tend to get more reasonable as the primaries begin. Trump's volatile personality could easily get him into trouble with voters. In the end, the Republican insiders will not back Trump, and that could make it difficult for him to win the nomination.