1. Miller did not know how to start a political campaign, and it could cause problems for him at home.
2. Wendy Gruel had name recognition from a past mayoral campaign, and she had many strong supporters.
3. Miller needed one million dollars in order to contend.
4. The money would be spent primarily on cable TV ads and direct mail.
5. Miller would need a media strategist, a direct mail consultant, a fundraising consultant, a campaign treasurer, an election lawyer, and other day-to-day campaign staff.
6. Consultants wanted him to play up his Jewish faith.
7. Likely voters were senior citizens 65+ because a quarter of registered voters would show up and they would probably not be millennials.
8. In the first few days, he raised $130,000.
9. The newspaper endorsement helped him raise identification 61% among Democrats and pushed him to fourth place, only three points behind third. It increased fundraising a huge amount and gave his campaign a new burst of energy.
10. He raised $517,000. He lost with 12% of the vote.
Thursday, December 10, 2015
2.6 Trump on SNL
1. The NBC affiliates are required to offer rivals twelve minutes and five seconds of air time, the exact time that Trump received.
2. Trump's rivals can request an equal opportunity to appear on-air for free to deliver their message to voters.
3. NBC may not rerun the episode, because that doubles Trump's time. This gives the other candidates almost a half hour of free TV as well.
4. The equal time doctrine does not compel networks to cover candidates, but once one is covered others have the opportunity to be covered as well.
5. An unintended consequence of the equal time provision is that stations are hesitant to cover candidates because they do not want to waste time having to cover other candidates. These minor candidates could cause them to lose viewers.
6. Bona fide news events are debates and appearances on major night time television shows.
7. The FEC could handle the appearance like a campaign contribution or expenditure that would require contribution limits, disclosure requirements, and possible fines.
2. Trump's rivals can request an equal opportunity to appear on-air for free to deliver their message to voters.
3. NBC may not rerun the episode, because that doubles Trump's time. This gives the other candidates almost a half hour of free TV as well.
4. The equal time doctrine does not compel networks to cover candidates, but once one is covered others have the opportunity to be covered as well.
5. An unintended consequence of the equal time provision is that stations are hesitant to cover candidates because they do not want to waste time having to cover other candidates. These minor candidates could cause them to lose viewers.
6. Bona fide news events are debates and appearances on major night time television shows.
7. The FEC could handle the appearance like a campaign contribution or expenditure that would require contribution limits, disclosure requirements, and possible fines.
Friday, December 4, 2015
2.9 Gerrymandering Fun :)
1. It took me ten minutes and one second to complete all the puzzles.
2. There is a nonpartisan state agency in charge of redistricting.
3. The 13th district has 14% Republicans and 86% Democrats. The 14th district has 16% Republicans and 84% Democrats.
4. District 1 is the most even between Republicans and Democrats.
5. The 12th district of North Carolina is the least compact congressional district in the country, allowing Republicans to take more House seats.
6. Five of the thirteen house seats went to Democrats, but Obama won Pennsylvania by five points in 2012.
7. Democrats control District 3, 9, and 13 in Ohio.
8. Ohio's 8th district has 100% Republicans and 0% Democrats.
9. John Boehner represents Ohio's 8th district, so they need to make sure those voters would be voting Republican to support Boehner.
10. Pennsylvania was the most annoying to put back together.
2. There is a nonpartisan state agency in charge of redistricting.
3. The 13th district has 14% Republicans and 86% Democrats. The 14th district has 16% Republicans and 84% Democrats.
4. District 1 is the most even between Republicans and Democrats.
5. The 12th district of North Carolina is the least compact congressional district in the country, allowing Republicans to take more House seats.
6. Five of the thirteen house seats went to Democrats, but Obama won Pennsylvania by five points in 2012.
7. Democrats control District 3, 9, and 13 in Ohio.
8. Ohio's 8th district has 100% Republicans and 0% Democrats.
9. John Boehner represents Ohio's 8th district, so they need to make sure those voters would be voting Republican to support Boehner.
10. Pennsylvania was the most annoying to put back together.
Monday, November 30, 2015
2.8 Refugees in America
First Article
1. They fear that the US isn't doing enough to screen refugees before they enter the country and that ISIS will come to the US.
2. Very few refugees have made it to the US, and US governors are refusing to take in refugees.
3. Refugees must submit a written application, go through a security background check, and the US must have a face-to-face interview with a refugee official.
4. The US suspects the refugees of being part of ISIS until they go through the procedures proving that they are simply freeing Syria to find a home.
5. The US is worried about national security and fears that refugees could be terrorists looking to hurt Americans.
6. I think the US should let more refugees into our country, because America is supposed to be a tolerant melting pot. If these Assyrians go through the process to be admitted to the United States, they should be let into the country. Our country prides itself on liberty and justice, so it should extend those amenities to people simply trying to flee their war-torn country.
Second Article
1. The states that have said "no" to refugees are all lead by Republican governors.
2. States don't have the authority to prohibit refugees from settling on their land, but they can ask the State Department to not allow it.
3. Many of these governors fear Islam and do not trust that most, if not all, of these refugees are good people looking for a place where they can be free. These governors are listening to the people, who are also scared of the unknown refugees. People are afraid of what they are not comfortable with, so any foreign people who are not Christian are not deemed trustworthy.
4. The governors are saying that it is an issue of national security and they are protecting the people in their states.
5. Yes; I think that refugees should be accepted all throughout the United States. If I was fleeing my country and trying to find a new home, I would be angered to learn that I was being turned away based on my religion.
1. They fear that the US isn't doing enough to screen refugees before they enter the country and that ISIS will come to the US.
2. Very few refugees have made it to the US, and US governors are refusing to take in refugees.
3. Refugees must submit a written application, go through a security background check, and the US must have a face-to-face interview with a refugee official.
4. The US suspects the refugees of being part of ISIS until they go through the procedures proving that they are simply freeing Syria to find a home.
5. The US is worried about national security and fears that refugees could be terrorists looking to hurt Americans.
6. I think the US should let more refugees into our country, because America is supposed to be a tolerant melting pot. If these Assyrians go through the process to be admitted to the United States, they should be let into the country. Our country prides itself on liberty and justice, so it should extend those amenities to people simply trying to flee their war-torn country.
Second Article
1. The states that have said "no" to refugees are all lead by Republican governors.
2. States don't have the authority to prohibit refugees from settling on their land, but they can ask the State Department to not allow it.
3. Many of these governors fear Islam and do not trust that most, if not all, of these refugees are good people looking for a place where they can be free. These governors are listening to the people, who are also scared of the unknown refugees. People are afraid of what they are not comfortable with, so any foreign people who are not Christian are not deemed trustworthy.
4. The governors are saying that it is an issue of national security and they are protecting the people in their states.
5. Yes; I think that refugees should be accepted all throughout the United States. If I was fleeing my country and trying to find a new home, I would be angered to learn that I was being turned away based on my religion.
2.7 Democrats Don't Want You to Watch
1. The Democratic National Committee organizes and schedules the party's primary debates.
2. TV ratings are lower on Friday and Saturday nights, so typically, parties do not like to schedule debates on these days. Ratings are high on Thursdays, and Democrats only have one debate on a Thursday.
3. Republicans scheduled their debates on days that historically receive high ratings, while Democrats scheduled most of their debates on unpopular days for viewership.
4. Democrats planned a debate on a Saturday six days before Christmas. Another debate is planned for the Sunday night of Martin Luther King weekend.
5. It keeps her from being shown too much, so voters may choose her based solely on her name and political experience instead of what she says to the public.
6. It negatively affects Sanders' campaign, because he is not as popular of a candidate as Clinton. This being said, he needs all the exposure he can get. The debates help get his name out there and show how he compares to Clinton.
7. Sanders' campaign heavily involves young people who can keep up with him through social media.
8. It gives Martin O'Malley very little exposure, and he is not going to be seen as much if the debate is scheduled on a night of poor ratings. Since he is not very well known, debates are his time to draw attention.
2. TV ratings are lower on Friday and Saturday nights, so typically, parties do not like to schedule debates on these days. Ratings are high on Thursdays, and Democrats only have one debate on a Thursday.
3. Republicans scheduled their debates on days that historically receive high ratings, while Democrats scheduled most of their debates on unpopular days for viewership.
4. Democrats planned a debate on a Saturday six days before Christmas. Another debate is planned for the Sunday night of Martin Luther King weekend.
5. It keeps her from being shown too much, so voters may choose her based solely on her name and political experience instead of what she says to the public.
6. It negatively affects Sanders' campaign, because he is not as popular of a candidate as Clinton. This being said, he needs all the exposure he can get. The debates help get his name out there and show how he compares to Clinton.
7. Sanders' campaign heavily involves young people who can keep up with him through social media.
8. It gives Martin O'Malley very little exposure, and he is not going to be seen as much if the debate is scheduled on a night of poor ratings. Since he is not very well known, debates are his time to draw attention.
Thursday, November 5, 2015
2.4 Jeb Is Sad :(
1. Jeb Bush has the most endorsement, the most money in the bank, the best name recognition, and a good poll standing.
2. Bush has struggled with trite questions and has had weak arguments. He is not the best politician.
3. Rubio is a better speaker than Bush. Rubio has the exact same policies as Bush, but he expresses them better. He is also a gutsy political risk-taker.
4. Bush cannot understand how Clinton's campaign is a political retread, because his family name has also been greatly involved in politics for many years.
5. Rubio is more dynamic than Bush, and Rubio has the same views as Bush. Rubio is better at politics, and he can also share his wealth if Bush chooses to help him. It helps Bush the most, because if he drops out now, he could still be seen as a dutiful politician to the Republican Party.
2. Bush has struggled with trite questions and has had weak arguments. He is not the best politician.
3. Rubio is a better speaker than Bush. Rubio has the exact same policies as Bush, but he expresses them better. He is also a gutsy political risk-taker.
4. Bush cannot understand how Clinton's campaign is a political retread, because his family name has also been greatly involved in politics for many years.
5. Rubio is more dynamic than Bush, and Rubio has the same views as Bush. Rubio is better at politics, and he can also share his wealth if Bush chooses to help him. It helps Bush the most, because if he drops out now, he could still be seen as a dutiful politician to the Republican Party.
2.5 Parties Vs. Media
1. The Republican National Committee believed that the moderators were trying to be mean-spirited and embarrass the candidates.
2. RNC could let another media organization hold the next debate instead of NBC.
3. I thought that John Harwood's comment about Trump's presidential campaign resembling a "comic book." His idea to build a wall to keep out the Mexicans does seem absurd.
4. Many journalists in the media believe that asking tough questions to Republicans is their job. They think that Democrats are normal and Republicans are not.
5. Republicans are using their control over the Republican debate schedule to pressure NBC to treat candidates with respect.
6. American Republicans have been convinced for years that the media has been hostile to them.
7. The Republican Party cannot actually boycott the media, because centrists and independent voters watch the mainstream media. The Republican Party wants to reach those voters, so they need to cooperate with the media.
8. No. The candidates need their air time and will do anything to voice their messages to the people. If they are at odds with NBC, other media outlets could follow suit.
9. The star power of some of the candidates could encourage viewers to not watch NBC.
10. Candidates could lose supporters if they limit their broadcasts to certain media outlets.
2. RNC could let another media organization hold the next debate instead of NBC.
3. I thought that John Harwood's comment about Trump's presidential campaign resembling a "comic book." His idea to build a wall to keep out the Mexicans does seem absurd.
4. Many journalists in the media believe that asking tough questions to Republicans is their job. They think that Democrats are normal and Republicans are not.
5. Republicans are using their control over the Republican debate schedule to pressure NBC to treat candidates with respect.
6. American Republicans have been convinced for years that the media has been hostile to them.
7. The Republican Party cannot actually boycott the media, because centrists and independent voters watch the mainstream media. The Republican Party wants to reach those voters, so they need to cooperate with the media.
8. No. The candidates need their air time and will do anything to voice their messages to the people. If they are at odds with NBC, other media outlets could follow suit.
9. The star power of some of the candidates could encourage viewers to not watch NBC.
10. Candidates could lose supporters if they limit their broadcasts to certain media outlets.
Thursday, October 29, 2015
2.3 New Speaker
1. Hard-liners want the House Democrats to use routine and critical pieces of must-pass legislation as leverage to secure ideological concessions from the White House.
2. Pragmatists do not expect Obama to compromise his core values in order to maintain the basic functions of government. Republican demands that he do so brings the GOP into disrepute.
3. Paul Ryan wanted family time and relief from the speaker's traditional fundraising obligations. Ryan also wanted the backing of all GOP subcaucuses and he wanted to curb the use of a procedural motion.
4. Several dozen members of Ryan's caucus fundamentally disagreed with him about strategy, and dozens more wouldn't publicly admit that they disagreed with him.
5. Paul Ryan's reputation as a Republican will be that he helps Democrats after he will pass a must-pass bill.
2. Pragmatists do not expect Obama to compromise his core values in order to maintain the basic functions of government. Republican demands that he do so brings the GOP into disrepute.
3. Paul Ryan wanted family time and relief from the speaker's traditional fundraising obligations. Ryan also wanted the backing of all GOP subcaucuses and he wanted to curb the use of a procedural motion.
4. Several dozen members of Ryan's caucus fundamentally disagreed with him about strategy, and dozens more wouldn't publicly admit that they disagreed with him.
5. Paul Ryan's reputation as a Republican will be that he helps Democrats after he will pass a must-pass bill.
2.2 Future of the Democratic Party
1. Republicans make up 70 percent of state legislatures, more than 60 percent of governors, and 55 percent of attorney generals and secretaries of state.
2. The Republicans are sure that they will not lose power in the House and are craving an argument about how to use the power they have best.
3. State legislature elections run the redistricting process for the House of Representatives, so the greatest level of electoral entrenchment is possible.
4. Seven states are completely in control of Democratic governments. They have Democrats in both houses of state legislature and have Democratic governors.
5. Republican controlled state governments have restricted abortion rights, spread union-hostile "right to work" laws, curbed voter rights, and laid off teachers and other workers.
6. 24% of the US population is under Democratically controlled government.
7. Republicans are likely to continue to control legislature, because the natural distribution of population in the United States tends to lead the average House district to be more GOP-friendly than the overall population. Most incumbents are Republicans, and they have large advantages in House elections.
8. The Democratic agenda is dead on arrival at the federal level. The Republican agenda is to change nothing and just hope for better luck or to shift left on immigration to appeal to Hispanics.
9. Hispanic votes could add a new demographic to Republican voters and secure their party even more in some new states.
10. The Democratic party is becoming more liberal on the issues of same-sex marriage, gun control, and raising minimum wage.
Thursday, October 22, 2015
2.1 Trump and Bernie
1. The party decides who the nominee for president will be. Specifically, party insiders have a say in who the nominee will be.
2. During the first debate, FoxNews wanted to discredit Donald Trump by using the debate as a trap for Trump.
3. In the election polls, Republican voters are motivated by a desire to go against the elites of the party. The party insiders usually decide the nomination, but voters want to decide for themselves.
4. Romney was the one most likely to win the nomination, so he won. He had political endorsements and had run in the 2008 election as well.
5. Endorsements showed that party insiders clearly backed one candidate before Iowa, and that candidate always won the nomination. Endorsements were the best predictors of presidential nominees.
6. In this nomination season, the Republican elites are backing Jeb Bush. However, the number of people backing him is relatively low.
7. The major determinant in who becomes the nominee is the status of the candidate. The candidate is typically holding an office in the party or is a national figure.
8. To influence primaries, parties can influence the primary calendar, change ballot qualification requirements, and limit the number of debates. Parties can also back candidates with financial resources.
9. Republican voters do not think that their party is doing a good job of representing their views on major issues.
10. Early polls aren't always predictive, and voters tend to get more reasonable as the primaries begin. Trump's volatile personality could easily get him into trouble with voters. In the end, the Republican insiders will not back Trump, and that could make it difficult for him to win the nomination.
2. During the first debate, FoxNews wanted to discredit Donald Trump by using the debate as a trap for Trump.
3. In the election polls, Republican voters are motivated by a desire to go against the elites of the party. The party insiders usually decide the nomination, but voters want to decide for themselves.
4. Romney was the one most likely to win the nomination, so he won. He had political endorsements and had run in the 2008 election as well.
5. Endorsements showed that party insiders clearly backed one candidate before Iowa, and that candidate always won the nomination. Endorsements were the best predictors of presidential nominees.
6. In this nomination season, the Republican elites are backing Jeb Bush. However, the number of people backing him is relatively low.
7. The major determinant in who becomes the nominee is the status of the candidate. The candidate is typically holding an office in the party or is a national figure.
8. To influence primaries, parties can influence the primary calendar, change ballot qualification requirements, and limit the number of debates. Parties can also back candidates with financial resources.
9. Republican voters do not think that their party is doing a good job of representing their views on major issues.
10. Early polls aren't always predictive, and voters tend to get more reasonable as the primaries begin. Trump's volatile personality could easily get him into trouble with voters. In the end, the Republican insiders will not back Trump, and that could make it difficult for him to win the nomination.
Thursday, October 8, 2015
1.1 Why Boehner Resigned
1. Boehner is stepping down because of the chaos in the House that is difficult to control. Boehner did not want to have to deal with the fight about a possible government shutdown, so he basically got out while he still could.
2. There is an election in the House to choose a replacement for Speaker of the House.
3. Conservatives believe that Boehner was unable to deliver conservative policies despite huge electoral gains. Boehner wanted to avoid extreme tactics. Conservatives wanted more than what Boehner would provide for them.
4. The coming government funding showdown revolves around Planned Parenthood. Federal money is going to Planned Parenthood to reimburse them for health-care services, but Planned Parenthood may use that money for other things. This angers many Republicans, because they do not like that the government is indirectly paying for abortions.
5. The Tea Party has teamed up with some Republican conservatives, so they can can promote a Republican to lead the House.
6. Boehner believes that House Republicans already accomplished what they could realistically achieve. They would not push the boundaries that the conservatives desperately wanted to push.
7. Kevin McCarthy, a Californian Republican, is the most likely choice to replace Boehner. I think he may not do a great job, because he is stuck in the same situation as Boehner. He has similar views to Boehner, so the conservatives will be unhappy with him.
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