Friday, February 26, 2016

3.8 Nevada and South Carolina

1. 2/3 of 2008 Nevada caucus voters participated in the 2016 caucus.
2. Lower and middle class voters did not show up for Sanders :(
3. The Democratic turnout was much higher in 2008. However, the Republican turnout was much greater this year than in 2008.
4. Sanders thinks Obama failed by not converting enthusiastic voters into an organized force. Sanders wants to keep the energy behind his campaign and push it through the White House.
5. Jeb's voters will most likely turn to Rubio and help him get more votes than Trump.
6. Cruz really thought he would do well in the South, so not doing well in the first southern state could be detrimental to his campaign.
7. Rubio needs to win northeastern states.
8. He thinks he can take Jeb's voters and win northeastern votes on Super Tuesday and win votes in the Michigan primary.
9. Trump has not cared enough yet to try to attack Rubio, and Rubio knows that if Trump attacks him, his campaign may suffer.

Friday, February 19, 2016

3.7 The Fight Over Scalia

1. The debate was shifted from the level of liberalism of Obama's choice to a debate about the reflexive obstructionism of the Republicans in Senate.
2. It is certainly a possibility that Trump wins the Republican nomination and that Republicans will be in great danger of losing the Senate majority. If that happens, Republicans will wish they had settled on a Supreme Court justice with Obama, someone not too liberal, before the Senate gets filled with more Democrats.
3. They have to be able to compromise with Obama or risk the loss of the presidency and Senate majority.
4. He looks like a messed-up uncle on a cartoon on TV.
5. Thrice have supreme court justices had to be replaced in election years.
6. For the past eighty years, a Supreme Court justice has not been appointed in an election year. Most of what he says is not true, but it is true that a nominee has not been appointed during an election year in that period of time.
7. The situation has not happened recently so it is unfair to say it is a normal situation.
8. Reagan's first choice was shut down by Democrats in the Senate.
9. Compromise and cooperation is now much more difficult.
10. Waiting for the next election

3.6 Will Republicans Block Obama?

1. He means that the next justice should not be appointed by Obama but instead by the next president. The American people are electing the president who should be picking the next judge.
2. The democratic Senate derailed Bork in 1987. :(
3. The Democrats in the past wanted to use their power to prevent a Republican Supreme Court nominee from becoming a justice. Now the Republicans are trying to do the same.
4. The Court will deal with abortion, birth control, voting rights and a ton of other issues.
5. Cruz thinks that if Obama picks the next justice, the second amendment will be taken out of the Constitution, enforce unlimited abortion, and take away religious freedoms.
6. The Democrats (Obama administration) denied the Senate's vote to filibuster the Iran Nuclear Deal and the filibuster was also weakened on a different occasion.
7. The Senate can check President Obama to keep him from choosing someone completely crazy!!

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

3.5 Revolving Doors

1. Fewer senators retire each year than representatives.
2. Most legislators do not want to register as lobbyists. The number only represents the lobbyists who are actually registered.
3. Congressmen who were party or committee leaders or were on the Ways and Means Committee or Senate Finance Committee are most likely to end up as lobbyists.
4. Congressmen can sell to multiple ideas, which makes them more hirable and gives them more money. They should be knowledgeable on a range of issues.
5. 63% of the time, the side with more former government officials get policy passed.
6. For every one dollar spent by public interest groups and unions, corporations spent thirty-four dollars.
7. Former government members should use their connections and experience to represent general public interest lobbying groups.

Thursday, February 4, 2016

3.4 Iowa Before and After

Final Democratic Polls:
1. Hillary is ahead by 3% as the most popular candidate. Bernie is ahead by 2% for the second most popular candidate.
2. Bernie is very liberal, and Hillary is more moderate. This could lead Hillary voters to not want to vote for Bernie and for Bernie voters to not want to vote for Hillary. This would leave O'Malley with extra votes.
3. The authors think first time caucus goers will vote for Bernie.
4. She is beating Bernie by 10% in these areas, a much larger gap than in other areas.
5. The margin of error is 4%. They know that O'Malley will lose by a lot. :(

Final Republican Polls:
1. Trump was beating Rubio by 13% and Cruz by 5%.
2. You either strongly support Trump or don't support him at all. If you agree with him, he will be your first choice. If you don't like him, he will never be your second choice.
3. In early January, Cruz was beating Trump by 3%.
4. First time caucus voters will vote for Trump.
5. The margin of error is 4%. Trump and Cruz will get most votes.

Actual Results:
1. Bernie and Hillary came very close and O'Malley lost by a ton.
2. Donald Trump- Cruz shocked the world and won!!
3. O'Malley, Rubio, and Carson
4. Rubio, because he did better than people thought. Bernie was so close that he almost won.
5. $2,800