Thursday, February 4, 2016

3.4 Iowa Before and After

Final Democratic Polls:
1. Hillary is ahead by 3% as the most popular candidate. Bernie is ahead by 2% for the second most popular candidate.
2. Bernie is very liberal, and Hillary is more moderate. This could lead Hillary voters to not want to vote for Bernie and for Bernie voters to not want to vote for Hillary. This would leave O'Malley with extra votes.
3. The authors think first time caucus goers will vote for Bernie.
4. She is beating Bernie by 10% in these areas, a much larger gap than in other areas.
5. The margin of error is 4%. They know that O'Malley will lose by a lot. :(

Final Republican Polls:
1. Trump was beating Rubio by 13% and Cruz by 5%.
2. You either strongly support Trump or don't support him at all. If you agree with him, he will be your first choice. If you don't like him, he will never be your second choice.
3. In early January, Cruz was beating Trump by 3%.
4. First time caucus voters will vote for Trump.
5. The margin of error is 4%. Trump and Cruz will get most votes.

Actual Results:
1. Bernie and Hillary came very close and O'Malley lost by a ton.
2. Donald Trump- Cruz shocked the world and won!!
3. O'Malley, Rubio, and Carson
4. Rubio, because he did better than people thought. Bernie was so close that he almost won.
5. $2,800

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